The “T notes” have turned lower after a quick test of the 125′ swing high. With price diverging with momentum indicators into the recent swing high the odds favour a five wave move complete off the 121′ higher swing low. For now that compiles a three wave move off the 119′ low. What happens from here is important for the larger degree trend in Treasuries, should price begin to impulse lower from here in dominant five wave structures the corrective [a]-[b]-[c] zigzag will take precedent and the odds will favour an eventual push below 119′. On the other hand a slower choppy corrective outcome would call up the alternate labelling and suggest a potential third wave is setting up.
Key support for the bullish view lies around the 123 handle, failure to maintain this level will decrease the odds of the one-two, one-two setting but as always structure is key.