AUDUSD

Price has held the breakout previously discussed on the Aussie Dollar. Momentum indicators are supporting the bullish labelling and the next wave [iii] targets are now set on the 138.2% and 1.618% extension levels of wave [i] from wave [ii]. The 100% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels should act as support if required for the impulsive advance.

Daily Chart

240 Min Chart

I have included some targets for wave (iii) in the four hour chart. The preferred count is that we are in the latter stages of wave v of (iii) and I will be watching the Subminuette impulse channel for evidence that this wave (iii) has topped. A fifth wave “throw over” from the top of the channel or and impulsive push lower through he bottom of the channel would do nicely.

60 Min Chart

Favouring further upside in wave [5] of v once wave [4] is complete. Price back below .92909 will likely spell wave v already in and the larger degree wave (iv) correction underway.

EURUSD

240 Min Chart

Price has retraced to the 88.6% Fibonacci level of the impulsive advance, that resulted from the completion of a contacting triangle within this larger degree advance. Price action following the most recent higher swing low is impulsive looking and has managed to keep the bullish labelling on the table. We need to see a continuation of this impulsiveness higher from here, as a new low would call up the already topped bearish count.

 

60 Min Chart

While it is possible to count five waves up off the 1.36721 low I would  still allow for additional gains within this advance if required to complete wave (i). Note that the corrections within  this advance are similar in size and the price channel is still holding, so there is the chance an internal wave iii is still unfolding. If we do get a more sizeable wave (ii) correction I expect key support around 1.37314 to hold the corrective retracement before pushing higher in wave (iii) of [iii]. Key Resistance lies at 1.38493 and 1.39660.

GBPUSD

Cable has gotten off to a positive start this week and is doing a good job in confirming the recent correction from 1.68215  is over. Price has broken above the corrective price channel established from the three wave move off 1.68215. Critical support can now be moved to 1.65507, price back below this level will question the immediate bullish labelling that wave (iii) is unfolding. Initial sights are set on taking out the 1.68215 swing high and once complete there are third wave fib targets hanging out around 1.7000. Larger degree uptrend underway once again.

EURUSD

Price has turned lower after tagging the 61.8% extension of wave [C] from [D], this is a common target for wave [E] of a contacting triangle. If price manages to trade below 1.36434 I will begin to consider minor wave C complete for the larger degree double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y).

Until price trades below 1.36423, where wave [ii] would retrace more than 100% of wave [i]. I am expecting higher prices to complete a larger impulsive structure for wave C. The measured move for the triangle is at 1.41979 and there is resistance from a prior corrective swing point located just above it at 1.42484.

The risk is low here for the upside potential, printing back above 1.38936 will add confidence to the opinion wave [iii] is underway.

Could an interim low have been struck yesterday? Critical support is at 1.37480 if you think so !

USDCAD

USDCAD is struggling to push through the 100% extension of wave 1 from wave 2. This area coincides with the upper trendline of the price channel it is trading within, I will stick with calling it a corrective price channel until we see a clear breakout. The count shown on the daily price chart would allow for a re-entry into the channel where wave 4 would correct into the area of the previous fourth of one lesser degree, wave [iv].

Price trading below 1.10246 will increase the odds wave 4 is under way and the thrust from the triangle is not extending higher in five waves. If we manage to take out 1.10246 I expect key support at 1.09096 to hold the fourth wave correction and it will be at this level the low risk entry will be, if price is indeed gearing up to breakout of the channel in wave 5.

 

AUDUSD

The Aussie Dollar continues to march higher keeping the bullish count intact. Price has managed to break above the corrective price channel that contained the ABC zigzag for Intermediate wave (Y). Daily RSI getting north of 65 would add confidence to the bullish expectations.

Preferably we will see a third wave get going from current levels following the series of one’s and two’s. Price has taken out the 61.8% extension level of wave [i] from wave [ii], critical support can therefore be raised to just below the 38.2% extension .90473 and the next target is the 100% level at .93016.

 

Get the Socionomic Edge

Get the Socionomic Edge
Find out how at the 4th Annual Social Mood Conference

By Elliott Wave International

Robert Prechter forecasted more than 10 years ago that the War on Drugs would become more violent, leading eventually to the decriminalization of the possession and sale of recreational drugs. The Socionomist followed up in 2009 with an in-depth story by Euan Wilson called “The Coming Collapse of a Modern Prohibition.” We published an update in November 2013, “Marijuana: The Mood Shifts, and Decades of Prohibition Go Up in Smoke,” that was a timely reminder just before marijuana stocks exploded in early 2014. The recent rush of new state laws to decriminalize pot bears out these forecasts.

Enter Alan Brochstein, a pioneer in the Green Rush by way of his groundbreaking website, 420 Investor, which provides investors information about how to invest in the nascent cannabis industry. He will be just one of the speakers from around the globe at the upcoming 4th Annual Social Mood Conference on April 5, 2014. Join the many people already scheduled to attend who are also interested in understanding how socionomics makes it possible to understand changes in the world — before they happen.

Here are the topics of five of the nine researchers and business people who will present their ideas in Atlanta.

* * * * * * * * * *

Alan Brochstein-75Capitalizing on Cannabis: The Transformation of an Industry and the Creation of a New Investment Bubble

Alan Brochstein, CFA, Founder of 420 Investor.com

Mr. Brochstein has seen the herding impulse up close on a consistent basis through his investing service. The rapidly changing landscape for legal and medical cannabis presents opportunities for many stakeholders, including patients, consumers, entrepreneurs and government entities. Investors, whether through publicly traded companies or privately, are poised to capitalize on cannabis as well.

He will discuss how the combination of a rapidly changing industry and a political dynamic that touches many investors on a deeply personal level is already attracting substantial capital that might even be characterized as a bubble in the publicly traded stocks. At the same time, a highly uncertain financial regulatory environment has left the cannabis industry without ample access to traditional funding sources. Mr. Brochstein will discuss the opportunities ahead for investors who can navigate what will likely be a volatile environment.

Suzy Moat-75Predicting Human Behavior with Internet Data

Suzy Moat, Assistant Professor of Behavioral Science at the Warwick Business School, UK

Our everyday Internet usage generates huge amounts of data on how humans collect and exchange information worldwide. Dr. Moat’s recent research asks whether this data can be used to measure and to even predict human behavior.

Her talk will aim to show how large-scale patterns of communication can indeed help us to understand large-scale patterns of behavior. Dr. Moat will describe a number of illuminating case studies that link data (from sources such as Google, Wikipedia and Twitter) to collective behavior in the economic domain and beyond. For example, her team tested a hypothetical investment strategy based on big data about Google searches for financial terms such as “debt,” “portfolio” and “stocks.” It earned a 326% theoretical profit from 2004 to 2011, compared with 16% if the model had simply purchased the same stocks in 2004 and sold them in 2011.

Thomas Brudermann -75From Individual Decision Making to Collective Dynamics

Thomas Brudermann, Ph.D., Researcher at the Institute for Systems Sciences, Innovation and Sustainability Research, University of Graz, Austria

How do ideas go viral on a large scale? Decades of research on human decision making have yielded rich insights on psychological biases. We are well aware of the power of social influence, conformity pressure and herding. At the same time, suitable methods have been developed to keep track of collective phenomena. To get an idea about ongoing processes in markets and society, we may analyze Twitter tweets, track Google search trends, observe sales figures of certain products or look at stock market indexes.

What is still missing is a comprehensive understanding of the underlying collective dynamics, that is, the missing link between decisions happening on the individual level and emergent phenomena occurring on a macro level scale. This talk will address prospects and challenges of this research as well as possible links to socionomics, and discuss under which circumstances thoughts, ideas and preferences might go viral on a large scale.

Atwater-75x75How to Use Socionomics in Real Time

Peter Atwater, President of Financial Insyghts, a U.S. consulting firm

Using examples from his own socionomic applications � ranging from huge unexpected wins to failed applications � Mr. Atwater will discuss the valuable lessons he has learned, some the hard way, in his years as a social mood researcher and finance professional.

He will share some of his real-life experiences with socionomics, such as what happens when he challenges money managers to view what is happening outside the markets as equally important as, if not more important than, what is happening inside the markets. He will also discuss how some pioneering business leaders have adopted socionomics as an indispensable tool for strategic planning.

Matt-Lampert-75The Socio Edge: Making Socionomically Informed Decisions in an Era of Dynamic Change

Matt Lampert, Ph.D. candidate at the University of Cambridge, UK

Despite the availability of information in the Age of Big Data, we are consistently blindsided by game-changing events. Mr. Lampert’s thesis is that, in a world marked by constant change and fluctuation, being able to see around the corner before others gives you the opportunity to prepare early. Socionomic analysis can cut through the noise to identify the signals that matter most. It can also generate a strategic advantage — from forecasting entirely new industries to recognizing the potential for swift trend changes. He will explore how the socio edge has allowed analysts to anticipate and adjust for changes in the social landscape that catch most of the world off guard.


Book Your Seat: The 2014 Social Mood Conference
Registration is now open

Join these five exciting speakers at the 2014 Social Mood Conference, April 5 in Atlanta, GA.

Learn more and reserve your seat now >>

If you would like to receive the free socionomics content each week, sign up here.

NZDUSD and AUDUSD Update

No sign of a halt to the advance in NZDUSD, RSI is diverging with the recent highs but is still in healthy bullish territory. It’s possible wave (iii) topped just above the 100% Fib extension of wave (i) from wave (ii) but the door is still open for this third wave to continue to extend.

480min Chart

60 min Chart

 

NZDUSD

Weekly Chart

Price has taken out the first key resistance level 0.85430 in signalling the contracting triangle is complete and the larger uptrend is underway once again. Continued strength through 0.86756 will dismiss the alternate wave [d] possibility and add further confidence to the bullish opinion. Critical Support for the larger degree count lies at 0.80496.

 Daily Chart

Price has shot above the trendline connecting waves [b] and [d] of the contracting triangle and more importantly found support from the same line on a retest. With that, key support can now be raised to 0.84376, failure for price to hold this level will question the immediate bullish outlook. Momentum indicators are supporting the bullish count for now.

480 Min Chart

It is possible to count another five waves complete off the Minuette wave (ii) higher swing low at 0.82416. With price just beyond equality the (a)-(b)-(c) zigzag is still very much a contender. The larger degree bullish count requires key support at 0.84403 to hold following any weakness from current levels. A push below this level will warn that the triangle may have only completed wave [d] and there is another correction underway.

60 Min Chart

The sharp drop off the recent swing high resembles that of the fist wave of a zigzag. Allow for a correction at this point with previous fourth wave support to come in at 0.84400 if required.

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

The push up to 0.91031 accompanied by negative divergence on RSI gives a more complete look to a five wave advance off the 0.89231 higher swing low. I do not expect a deep wave [2] to unfold here and would like to see support come in above the 61.8% retracement level. This initial drop off 0.91031 is likely only part of wave [2] so allow for more time rather that depth here.

Price through 0.91031 and then 0.91323 decisively will add confidence to the opinion the larger trend has resumed up in a possible third wave.

Price back below 0.89231 will negate the immediate bullish outlook and call up the alternate count.

Older posts «

%d bloggers like this: