Elliott Wave Ireland

GBPUSD has made its way back to a significant area that has been pivotal for the pair over the last number of years, acting as an area of both support and resistance.

As the preferred count is calling for Intermediate wave (2) green to complete at nearby levels and we are back testing the underside of the triangles trendline, along with some other Fibonacci targets, a bearish reaction for here could be the first signs of a much larger push lower for GBPUSD.

Should the triangle still be unfolding the ALT count suggests that a final wave “e” could terminate the larger pattern from nearby levels also.

The initial rise off the low counts best a three, the sharp correction failed to tag a 90% retracement so I will go with the double Zigzag for now.

1.57886 should have enough to hold this count if it is correct.

AUDUSD has reacted off the Low and for now is giving the price action that should follow the completion of a Contracting Ending Diagonal. Price is out of and testing the upper trendline of the Impulse Channel (Blue Lines) and has also shown respect to the lower trendline of the Basing Channel (Gold Lines). With the overlap so far it is difficult to put a clean five wave impulsive count to the rise so I will not force it. But with us not far of the initial target it might be worth leaving some coin on the table should a third wave blow through 0.97697.

Price needs to clear the rising channel for a Third wave. The immediate correction should find support around 0.95352 should it extend lower ( Fib Confluence Zone) failure to do so would favor a more complex correction off the recent swing low.

So far the S&P500 has shown respect to the Impulse Channel. Early stages of Minuette (iii) purple or C.

Here is a 5min of the Subminuette.

The S&P500 is not far off the low of Minuette wave (i) Purple which would negate the bullish one-two (or A-B) set up. This means low risk opportunity for a bullish trade in a Third wave / C wave higher. Price should hold the lower trend line of the Minor degree Impulse Channel around the 1610 handle if this is the correct count. We will see very soon !!

Possible Subminuette count .. RSI Divergence needs to hold..

The Three Major Rules Of Elliott Wave Principle

AUDUSD getting ready to pop, if the Ending Contracting Diagonal is correct for Minute v. red price should be back up to 0.97909 fairly lively..

Ending Contacting Diagonal on 15 min chart.

The S&P500 came down and tested cited support at 1,600.00. In doing this price has respected the Basing and Impulse Channel of the Minor Degree Advance. Price should push on higher in Minor wave 5 black from here, 1598.16 must hold for this.

Here is how I am labeling the corrective drop, (a) Triangle (b) and (c). Price is off the recent low impulsively and has managed to break out and test the corrective channel. Still a little unclear if Minuette (i) purple is complete. I will be expecting a little lower for Minuette (ii) purple, could get another test of the corrective channel. Waiting for a third wave, Elliott Set Up close by !!

I will be hosting a live session

 ”Introduction to the EWP” 

at 13:30 EST (New York) (18:30 Ireland)

6th June 2013

Follow the link below to enter the room, it is all free.

www.anymeeting.com/speacadfut1www.anymeeting.com/speacadfut1

In this video I look at iShares TLT along with an interesting break down in the High Yield Bond Fund.

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The 2 Most Important Keys to Successful Trading Examples from Whole Foods Market and Reynolds American, Inc show you what to do (or not) to trade successfully with Elliott Wave

By Elliott Wave International

After 20 years of experience applying the Elliott Wave Principle, Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy says that it remains the one tool that will tell him — down to the tick, to the pip, even to the penny – when his forecast is no longer viable.

That, according to Kennedy, is one of the two most important keys to successful trading:

“Know where you are wrong.”

In his May 8 Elliott Wave Junctures educational video, Kennedy shows subscribers how to acquire that knowledge when revisiting an earlier forecast that didn’t work out. This lesson was adapted from our EWJ service, and also explores the second of Kennedy’s Keys to Successful Trading:

“Don’t pick tops and bottoms.”

See the logic behind Kennedy’s wisdom by reviewing his analysis of Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFM) and Reynolds American, Inc. (RAI).

My outlook for Whole Foods Market was right and my outlook for Reynolds American was wrong. While price evidence was compelling for both issues, the forecast in WFM was in the direction of the trend and RAI’s incorporated top picking. Here’s what happened:

On May 1, price evidence called for new highs in Whole Foods Market. We had a clearly defined uptrend, a three wave move in the direction opposite the primary trend, and the move to the downside was contained within parallel lines:

Additionally, we had a double closed-key reversal when the low was made, as well as some bullish divergence on the smaller timeframes. Price evidence was very strong that this market would continue to new all-time highs, so my outlook was bullish.

The bullish outlook in WFM required the April low of $81.39 to hold. The trend was clearly up from 2009 into 2013. From an Elliott Wave perspective we knew that this was a countertrend move with an A-B-C structure (a corrective wave pattern within a larger trending market). We had the wind at our back and were not “picking a top.” We simply looked at the price evidence in support of a further rally.

Conversely, the following example in Reynolds America, Inc. did not work out.

On March 22, I anticipated a move to the downside in Reynolds American, Inc. as we had a five-wave decline and a subsequent advance that was a three-wave move. I was looking for a tradable selloff to the downside in wave (C) or wave (3):

Unlike the successful WFA example, I was not trading with the trend. Instead, I was looking for a “top.”

Yet I was able to prevent a losing trade from becoming a devastating trade because I could use the Elliott Wave Principle to “know where I was wrong.”

This bearish wave pattern was viable only as long as prices held below the February high of $45.17.

Once prices exceeded this critical resistance, I knew not to look to the downside – that my outlook was no longer viable: